Thursday, May 19, 2011
Strong Peso - Lower Mexican Rates
The yield on Mexico’s benchmark peso bonds due in 2024 fell 61 basis points, or 0.61 percentage point, from a one-year high on March 3 to 7.39 percent. Brazil’s real-denominated bonds due in 2021 yield 12.5 percent, down 20 basis points during the period. Foreign investors withdrew a net $372 million from Brazil’s bond market in the first quarter after the government tripled taxes on bond investors last year to curb an advance in the real.
Tuesday, May 3, 2011
Mexican Economic Commentary
May 2011
The IPC index of leading issues fell 1% on May 2 to 36593 points, on volume of 167.2 million shares valued at 5.36 billion pesos ($465 million).
The Mexican peso was slightly weaker against the U.S. dollar and was quoted in Mexico City at MXN11.5140, according to Infosel, compared with Friday's close of MXN11.5100.
A poll carried out by the central bank in late April, showed consumer prices were seen rising 3.87 percent this year, down from a forecast of 3.92 percent in the previous month.
The average forecast for the central bank target interest rate during the first quarter of 2013 fell to 5.99 percent from 6.24 percent a month earlier. The Mexican central bank has kept its target interest rate steady at 4.5 percent since July 2009.
In the central bank poll, analysts expected the economy would expand 4.37 percent this year, compared with a forecast of 4.25 percent in the previous monthly poll. Mexico bounced back from recession last year, growing at its fastest pace in a decade, and the central bank has said it could grow as much as 4.8 percent in 2011.
The yield on Mexico's 10-year bonds due 2020 edged up 1 basis point to 7.22% April 27, while the yield on 28-day Treasury notes, called Cetes, was flat at 4.24%.
Unemployment in Mexico fell to 4.6% in March from 5.4% the previous month and from 4.8% a year earlier, reaching its lowest level since December 2008, according to the National Statistics Institute on April 20.
Outlook: Expect interest rates to fall slightly at the Cetes auction for May 4. US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner is delaying pressure on the US Congress to raise the debt ceiling. This will curtail the flow of available US T-bills and bonds that compete for Mexican debt that should become more attractive.
The IPC index of leading issues fell 1% on May 2 to 36593 points, on volume of 167.2 million shares valued at 5.36 billion pesos ($465 million).
The Mexican peso was slightly weaker against the U.S. dollar and was quoted in Mexico City at MXN11.5140, according to Infosel, compared with Friday's close of MXN11.5100.
A poll carried out by the central bank in late April, showed consumer prices were seen rising 3.87 percent this year, down from a forecast of 3.92 percent in the previous month.
The average forecast for the central bank target interest rate during the first quarter of 2013 fell to 5.99 percent from 6.24 percent a month earlier. The Mexican central bank has kept its target interest rate steady at 4.5 percent since July 2009.
In the central bank poll, analysts expected the economy would expand 4.37 percent this year, compared with a forecast of 4.25 percent in the previous monthly poll. Mexico bounced back from recession last year, growing at its fastest pace in a decade, and the central bank has said it could grow as much as 4.8 percent in 2011.
The yield on Mexico's 10-year bonds due 2020 edged up 1 basis point to 7.22% April 27, while the yield on 28-day Treasury notes, called Cetes, was flat at 4.24%.
Unemployment in Mexico fell to 4.6% in March from 5.4% the previous month and from 4.8% a year earlier, reaching its lowest level since December 2008, according to the National Statistics Institute on April 20.
Outlook: Expect interest rates to fall slightly at the Cetes auction for May 4. US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner is delaying pressure on the US Congress to raise the debt ceiling. This will curtail the flow of available US T-bills and bonds that compete for Mexican debt that should become more attractive.
Thursday, May 21, 2009
GMK - Current best Mexican Play
Technical indicators are very strong.
http://www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/analysis.pl?symb=GMK&num1=1&cobrand=&mode=stock
Strategy is to buy on any pull back in weaker overall market. Current short-term low may hit tomorrow.
http://www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/analysis.pl?symb=GMK&num1=1&cobrand=&mode=stock
Strategy is to buy on any pull back in weaker overall market. Current short-term low may hit tomorrow.
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Monday, April 27, 2009
Mexican Commentary April 27, 2009
Mexican Commentary April 27, 2009
Mexican ADRs declined from fear that the Swine Flu will impact the economy on April 27, 2009. With IBA’s swine production particularly a worry, it was sold today. In addition we eliminated GOL, KOF, GMK and SDA. These stocks are particularly exposed to the food sector. Tourist related business was also more affected by the decline as represented by GOL a Brazilian airline.
The clearstation.com portfolio stands at $340,230.53 for 33 individual items that originally had $10,000 representation for each and is ranked # 19 on Clearstation.com, up 3 slots from the previous day (Friday).
All Mexican stocks in the portfolio declined. Mexican home builder HXM led the decline at 19.46 down 2.39, 10.93% followed by construction company ICA at 7.26 down 0.77, 9.58%.
According to the Bank of Mexico, the peso closed at 13.775 to the US Dollar, 4.1% lower than on Friday.
On the Bolsa in Mexico City, the IPC index at 21,827.109 down 3.34%.
The reaction to the fear of a pandemic of Swine Flu had a very negative effect on the peso and financial markets today. Deaths from the disease continue to be reported but trends are uncertain. If increasing trends for deaths follow this first news, a sharper than expected contraction to the Mexican Economy would follow. This should continue to impact the peso, stock prices, inflation and may cause a wave of illegal immigration into the United States. This would be a temporary phenomena but its duration is uncertain.
Analysis of previous news impacts concerning heath like SARS for example, show a pattern of a trough forming flowed by economic recovery. This would make for an exceptional opportunity for the purchase of Mexican securities. I will continue to be alert and will note changes here.
Mexican ADRs declined from fear that the Swine Flu will impact the economy on April 27, 2009. With IBA’s swine production particularly a worry, it was sold today. In addition we eliminated GOL, KOF, GMK and SDA. These stocks are particularly exposed to the food sector. Tourist related business was also more affected by the decline as represented by GOL a Brazilian airline.
The clearstation.com portfolio stands at $340,230.53 for 33 individual items that originally had $10,000 representation for each and is ranked # 19 on Clearstation.com, up 3 slots from the previous day (Friday).
All Mexican stocks in the portfolio declined. Mexican home builder HXM led the decline at 19.46 down 2.39, 10.93% followed by construction company ICA at 7.26 down 0.77, 9.58%.
According to the Bank of Mexico, the peso closed at 13.775 to the US Dollar, 4.1% lower than on Friday.
On the Bolsa in Mexico City, the IPC index at 21,827.109 down 3.34%.
The reaction to the fear of a pandemic of Swine Flu had a very negative effect on the peso and financial markets today. Deaths from the disease continue to be reported but trends are uncertain. If increasing trends for deaths follow this first news, a sharper than expected contraction to the Mexican Economy would follow. This should continue to impact the peso, stock prices, inflation and may cause a wave of illegal immigration into the United States. This would be a temporary phenomena but its duration is uncertain.
Analysis of previous news impacts concerning heath like SARS for example, show a pattern of a trough forming flowed by economic recovery. This would make for an exceptional opportunity for the purchase of Mexican securities. I will continue to be alert and will note changes here.
Saturday, April 25, 2009
Mexican Commentary April 25, 2009
Mexican Commentary April 25, 2009
Mexican ADRs lagged in the increase for the MexCom clearstation.com portfolio at the close on April 24, 2009. It stands at $407,159.28 for 38 individual items that originally had $10,000 representation for each and is ranked # 22 on Clearstation.com, up one slot from the previous day. No changes were made to the list yesterday.
Home builders led the advance with LEN at 9.97 up 1.30, 14.99% and RYL at 23.30 up 2.04, 9.68%. One outstanding Latin stock is Brazilian SDA at 5.14 up 0.65, 14.47%. GMK continued as the best performing Mexican stock on the list 2.63 up 0.23, 9.58%. This was purchased in my IRA account yesterday. Profit taking continues in RC 6.10 down 0.75, 10.94%.
According to the Bank of Mexico, the peso closed at 13.2318 to the US Dollar.
On the Bolsa in Mexico City, the IPC index at 22,582.170 advanced by 3.34%.
Mexican ADRs lagged in the increase for the MexCom clearstation.com portfolio at the close on April 24, 2009. It stands at $407,159.28 for 38 individual items that originally had $10,000 representation for each and is ranked # 22 on Clearstation.com, up one slot from the previous day. No changes were made to the list yesterday.
Home builders led the advance with LEN at 9.97 up 1.30, 14.99% and RYL at 23.30 up 2.04, 9.68%. One outstanding Latin stock is Brazilian SDA at 5.14 up 0.65, 14.47%. GMK continued as the best performing Mexican stock on the list 2.63 up 0.23, 9.58%. This was purchased in my IRA account yesterday. Profit taking continues in RC 6.10 down 0.75, 10.94%.
According to the Bank of Mexico, the peso closed at 13.2318 to the US Dollar.
On the Bolsa in Mexico City, the IPC index at 22,582.170 advanced by 3.34%.
Friday, April 24, 2009
Mexican Commentary April 24, 2009
Mexican Commentary April 24, 2009
Mexican ADRs lead the increase in the MexCom portfolio at the close on April 23, 2009. It stands at $398788.25 for 38 individual items that originally had $10,000 representation for each and is ranked # 23 on Clearstation.com, up one slot from the previous day. IMKTA was added to the list yesterday.
Ingles Markets (IMKTA) is a supermarket chain predominate in North Carolina. They recently reported an earnings decline being impacted by the recession. Previously they have been showing excellent growth modernizing their markets and adding gas sales to many locations. Some of their sales decline may be due to a decline in gas prices compared to a year ago. Population growth has been above the average for the US in this part of the country but current unemployment is now approximately 10%. Their dividend at 4% yield makes it attractive and current earnings has it well covered. They haven’t increased their dividend in a number of years but should be due for a dividend increase within one year after this recession is over and growth resumes.
GMK at 2.4 up 0.16 was for the second day the best performing Mexican stock on the list up 7.14% on good volume. It is up 26% since being added to the list on April 9. Since being first added, GMK is our best performing Mexican stock on the list followed by RC, HXM, and KOF. AMX was the second best performer yesterday closing at 31.28, up 1.10, 3.64%. It is up 3.2% since added to the list on April 3.
Mexican ADRs lead the increase in the MexCom portfolio at the close on April 23, 2009. It stands at $398788.25 for 38 individual items that originally had $10,000 representation for each and is ranked # 23 on Clearstation.com, up one slot from the previous day. IMKTA was added to the list yesterday.
Ingles Markets (IMKTA) is a supermarket chain predominate in North Carolina. They recently reported an earnings decline being impacted by the recession. Previously they have been showing excellent growth modernizing their markets and adding gas sales to many locations. Some of their sales decline may be due to a decline in gas prices compared to a year ago. Population growth has been above the average for the US in this part of the country but current unemployment is now approximately 10%. Their dividend at 4% yield makes it attractive and current earnings has it well covered. They haven’t increased their dividend in a number of years but should be due for a dividend increase within one year after this recession is over and growth resumes.
GMK at 2.4 up 0.16 was for the second day the best performing Mexican stock on the list up 7.14% on good volume. It is up 26% since being added to the list on April 9. Since being first added, GMK is our best performing Mexican stock on the list followed by RC, HXM, and KOF. AMX was the second best performer yesterday closing at 31.28, up 1.10, 3.64%. It is up 3.2% since added to the list on April 3.
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